On April 3, 2025, President Trump announced reciprocal tariffs on a number of America’s trading partners: +34% on China, +27% on India, +24% on Japan, and +20% on the EU, among others.
Including existing duties, the total levy on China will now equate to 65%. Factoring in industry-specific tariffs (such as +25% on cars), America’s overall effective tariff rate is estimated to rise to an average of 22.5%, the highest since 1909, according toYale University’s Budget Lab.
The stated rationale for the tariffs is to reduce or close America’s trade deficit, which the Administration views as a transferof wealth to other countries. Historically, before governments and economies became more sophisticated and complex, raising revenue through tariffs was a straightforward method. If the average tariff rate remains around 20%, it could generate between $600 billion and $800 billion in revenues, according to Yardeni Research. However, this figure is still below the government’s expected annual net interest payments, which are projected to exceed $1 trillion this year.
Traditionally, Americans have consumed more and saved less compared to their country’s investment levels. Despite this trend,the U.S. economy has outpaced the rest of the G7 nations for over three decades. While tariffs aim to reduce the deficit, balanced trade may not necessarily be optimal (or possible).
Can the U.S. afford more inflation?
Durable and non-durable goods, such as food and clothing, account for approximately 30% of U.S. spending, according to an April 6th Financial Times article. To varying degrees, most items in this category will see their prices rise. As a reminder,prices have already risen (on average) 20% since January 2021. As an example of what we might see, The Financial Times suggests that the price of an iPhone 16 Pro Max could increase from $1599 to $2300, if all tariff costs are passed on to consumers. Yale University’s The Budget Lab estimates apparel prices could rise by approximately 17%. The chart below reflects manufacturers reporting higher prices in advance of the April 2 Tariff announcement.
According to The Budget Lab, accounting for all 2025 U.S tariffs announced to date, real GDP growth could be reduced by 0.9% in calendar 2025 and 0.1% in calendar 2026 (as production and supply chains re-optimize). The level of real GDP could be persistently 0.6% smaller in the long run, representing a destruction of approximately $160 billion annual in 2024 dollars.
On the corporate earnings side, according to Goldman Sachs, every 5% increase in the tariff rate is expected to reduce S&P 500 earnings by up to 2%.
The tariff announcements come on the heels of rising government unemployment. As of April 6, 2025, the Financial Times estimates nearly 300,000 government workers have been laid-off over the past two months. The tariffs could further raise uncertainty and restrain capital expenditures.
The combination of all three—higher inflation, higher unemployment, and reduced consumer demand—should compress valuations and lead to lower asset class valuation (in general).
Since the tariffs were announced last week, a rift is emerging in the Republican party.
In the Senate, Republicans supported a resolution to overturn the tariffs against Canada. Ted Cruz has warned of potential issues for Republicans in the mid-terms. This topic is volatile and divisive, and a reversal in policy could lead to a reflation in asset class pricing. More developments are likely to follow.
Books to Suggest to Clients to Learn More on the Topic:
Clashing Over Commerce: A History of US Trade Policy by Douglas Irwin
I, Pencil by Leonard Read
No Trade is Free: Changing the Course, Taking on China and Helping America’s Workers by Robert Lightizer
On the Principles of Political Economy and Taxation by David Ricardo